Bear Put Spreads Below the 200-Day
Bear Put Spread18 trades pass on BABA
- Return on risk
- 60.0% to 281.3%
- Probability of profit
- 37.6% to 58.9%
Alibaba Group Holding Ltd · Consumer
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BABA last closed at $94.38 with 30-day implied volatility of 48.5%. That is near the top of its one-year range (IV rank 77), so option premiums on BABA are expensive compared with its own recent history. Measured by IV percentile, IV is higher than 87% of the past year's readings. Options expiring Dec 11 (28 days out) price a one standard deviation move of about $12.82, or 13.6%.
The price is below both its 50-day (-11.7%) and 200-day (-23.5%) moving averages. It is trading within 0.0% of its 52-week low. The 14-day RSI of 33.7 is between 30 and 70, neither overbought nor oversold. The 14-day average true range is $3.53, about 3.7% of the price, a measure of a typical day's range.
Option volume at the close (155K contracts) was 1.4x its average, busier than usual. A beta of 0.88 means BABA has tended to move about 0.9 times as much as the broad market. 2 of our preset screens found trades on BABA at the close, led by Bear Put Spreads Below the 200-Day with 18 trades.
Expected move = price x at-the-money IV x the square root of (days to expiration / 365), a one standard deviation range. The straddle is the at-the-money call plus put, the market's own price for a move. Compare expected moves across stocks.
| Expiration | IV | Expected move | 1 SD range | Straddle |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 20, 20267 days | 68.3% | ±$8.92 (9.5%) | $85.46 to $103.30 | $7.15 |
| Dec 11, 202628 days | 49.1% | ±$12.82 (13.6%) | $81.56 to $107.20 | $10.20 |
| Jan 15, 202763 days | 45.4% | ±$17.80 (18.9%) | $76.58 to $112.18 | $14.18 |
| Feb 19, 202798 days | 44.6% | ±$21.82 (23.1%) | $72.56 to $116.20 | $17.33 |
Each expiration has its own implied volatility, and short-dated IV reacts more to near-term events, so the nearest expiration can differ a lot from the 30-day figure.
Counts and ranges for BABA from our preset scans at the last close. Open a preset in the app to see each trade with its strikes, prices, and risk, refreshed intraday. Income strategies show annualized return; the rest show return on risk.
18 trades pass on BABA
5 trades pass on BABA
Market data as of the prior close, for information and education only. Not investment advice. Options involve substantial risk and are not suitable for every investor. See our Terms of Service.