Bull Call Spreads on High-Beta Names
Bull Call Spread130 trades pass on GDX
- Return on risk
- 100.0% to 476.9%
- Probability of profit
- 29.3% to 56.8%
ETFETF
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GDX last closed at $81.64 with 30-day implied volatility of 42.0%. That is near the bottom of its one-year range (IV rank 22), so options on GDX are cheap compared with its own recent history. Measured by IV percentile, IV is higher than 19% of the past year's readings. Options expiring Dec 11 (28 days out) price a one standard deviation move of about $9.58, or 11.7%.
The price is below both its 50-day (-7.6%) and 200-day (-9.0%) moving averages. It is 29.5% below its 52-week high and 15.4% above its 52-week low. The 14-day RSI of 44.5 is between 30 and 70, neither overbought nor oversold. The 14-day average true range is $3.51, about 4.3% of the price, a measure of a typical day's range.
Option volume at the close (120K contracts) was 1.1x its average, close to normal. A beta of 1.82 means GDX has tended to move about 1.8 times as much as the broad market. 5 of our preset screens found trades on GDX at the close, led by Bull Call Spreads on High-Beta Names with 130 trades.
Expected move = price x at-the-money IV x the square root of (days to expiration / 365), a one standard deviation range. The straddle is the at-the-money call plus put, the market's own price for a move. Compare expected moves across stocks.
| Expiration | IV | Expected move | 1 SD range | Straddle |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 16, 20263 days | 30.3% | ±$2.24 (2.7%) | $79.40 to $83.88 | $1.81 |
| Dec 11, 202628 days | 42.4% | ±$9.58 (11.7%) | $72.06 to $91.22 | $7.63 |
| Jan 15, 202763 days | 41.1% | ±$13.95 (17.1%) | $67.69 to $95.59 | $11.10 |
Each expiration has its own implied volatility, and short-dated IV reacts more to near-term events, so the nearest expiration can differ a lot from the 30-day figure.
Counts and ranges for GDX from our preset scans at the last close. Open a preset in the app to see each trade with its strikes, prices, and risk, refreshed intraday. Income strategies show annualized return; the rest show return on risk.
130 trades pass on GDX
109 trades pass on GDX
19 trades pass on GDX
14 trades pass on GDX
2 trades pass on GDX
Market data as of the prior close, for information and education only. Not investment advice. Options involve substantial risk and are not suitable for every investor. See our Terms of Service.