Bear Call Spreads on Overbought Stocks
Bear Call Spread20 trades pass on MRNA
- Return on risk
- 6.1% to 36.6%
- Probability of profit
- 65.8% to 89.0%
Moderna, Inc. · Healthcare
As of the close on . In the app, data is refreshed intraday.
MRNA closed at $197.28 on Sep 28, 2026 with 30-day implied volatility of 96.4%. That is in the upper half of its one-year range (IV rank 56), so premiums are somewhat richer than usual for MRNA. Measured by IV percentile, IV is higher than 96% of the past year's readings. Options expiring Oct 30 (32 days out) price a one standard deviation move of about $59.08, or 29.9%.
The price is above both its 50-day (+74.9%) and 200-day (+203.0%) moving averages. It is trading within 0.8% of its 52-week high. The 14-day RSI of 74.9 is over 70, a level often described as overbought. The 14-day average true range is $12.69, about 6.4% of the price, a measure of a typical day's range.
Option volume at the close (53.6K contracts) was 0.5x its average, much quieter than usual. A beta of 1.91 means MRNA has tended to move about 1.9 times as much as the broad market. 3 of our preset screens found trades on MRNA at the close, led by Bear Call Spreads on Overbought Stocks with 20 trades.
Expected move = price x at-the-money IV x the square root of (days to expiration / 365), a one standard deviation range. The straddle is the at-the-money call plus put, the market's own price for a move. Compare expected moves across stocks.
| Expiration | IV | Expected move | 1 SD range | Straddle |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 2, 20264 days | 87.7% | ±$18.11 (9.2%) | $179.17 to $215.39 | $14.45 |
| Oct 30, 202632 days | 101.1% | ±$59.08 (29.9%) | $138.20 to $256.36 | $46.90 |
| Nov 20, 202653 days | 95.2% | ±$71.60 (36.3%) | $125.68 to $268.88 | $56.38 |
| Dec 18, 202681 days | 89.9% | ±$83.52 (42.3%) | $113.76 to $280.80 | $65.53 |
Each expiration has its own implied volatility, and short-dated IV reacts more to near-term events, so the nearest expiration can differ a lot from the 30-day figure.
Counts and ranges for MRNA from our preset scans at the last close. Open a preset in the app to see each trade with its strikes, prices, and risk, refreshed intraday. Income strategies show annualized return; the rest show return on risk.
20 trades pass on MRNA
16 trades pass on MRNA
12 trades pass on MRNA
Market data as of the prior close, for information and education only. Not investment advice. Options involve substantial risk and are not suitable for every investor. See our Terms of Service.