Bear Put Spreads Below the 200-Day
Bear Put Spread1 trade passes on PDD
- Return on risk
- 200.8%
- Probability of profit
- 40.4%
PDD Holdings Inc. · Consumer
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PDD last closed at $78.97 with 30-day implied volatility of 44.4%. That is near the top of its one-year range (IV rank 76), so option premiums on PDD are expensive compared with its own recent history. Measured by IV percentile, IV is higher than 83% of the past year's readings. Options expiring Dec 11 (28 days out) price a one standard deviation move of about $9.99, or 12.6%.
The price is below both its 50-day (-0.7%) and 200-day (-12.2%) moving averages. It is 42.0% below its 52-week high and 7.7% above its 52-week low. The 14-day RSI of 46.9 is between 30 and 70, neither overbought nor oversold. The 14-day average true range is $2.39, about 3.0% of the price, a measure of a typical day's range.
Option volume at the close (19.7K contracts) was 0.9x its average, close to normal. A beta of 0.60 means PDD has tended to move about 0.6 times as much as the broad market. 2 of our preset screens found trades on PDD at the close, led by Bear Put Spreads Below the 200-Day with 1 trade.
Expected move = price x at-the-money IV x the square root of (days to expiration / 365), a one standard deviation range. The straddle is the at-the-money call plus put, the market's own price for a move. Compare expected moves across stocks.
| Expiration | IV | Expected move | 1 SD range | Straddle |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 20, 20267 days | 65.4% | ±$7.15 (9.1%) | $71.82 to $86.12 | $5.71 |
| Dec 11, 202628 days | 45.7% | ±$9.99 (12.6%) | $68.98 to $88.96 | $7.96 |
| Jan 15, 202763 days | 36.3% | ±$11.91 (15.1%) | $67.06 to $90.88 | $9.53 |
Each expiration has its own implied volatility, and short-dated IV reacts more to near-term events, so the nearest expiration can differ a lot from the 30-day figure.
Counts and ranges for PDD from our preset scans at the last close. Open a preset in the app to see each trade with its strikes, prices, and risk, refreshed intraday. Income strategies show annualized return; the rest show return on risk.
1 trade passes on PDD
1 trade passes on PDD
Market data as of the prior close, for information and education only. Not investment advice. Options involve substantial risk and are not suitable for every investor. See our Terms of Service.