Long Call Butterflies for Pinning
Call Butterfly40 trades pass on USO
- Return on risk
- 177.8% to 1,000%+
- Probability of profit
- 2.7% to 59.8%
United States Oil Fund, LP · ETFETF
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USO last closed at $145.58 with 30-day implied volatility of 45.9%. That is near the bottom of its one-year range (IV rank 20), so options on USO are cheap compared with its own recent history. Measured by IV percentile, IV is higher than 36% of the past year's readings. Options expiring Dec 11 (28 days out) price a one standard deviation move of about $18.37, or 12.6%.
The price is above its 200-day moving average (+14.0%) but below its 50-day (-4.7%), a pullback inside a longer uptrend. It is 14.1% below its 52-week high and 120.0% above its 52-week low. The 14-day RSI of 42.4 is between 30 and 70, neither overbought nor oversold. The 14-day average true range is $5.33, about 3.7% of the price, a measure of a typical day's range.
Option volume at the close (90K contracts) was 0.5x its average, quieter than usual. A negative beta of -1.52 means USO has tended to move against the broad market. 2 of our preset screens found trades on USO at the close, led by Long Call Butterflies for Pinning with 40 trades.
Expected move = price x at-the-money IV x the square root of (days to expiration / 365), a one standard deviation range. The straddle is the at-the-money call plus put, the market's own price for a move. Compare expected moves across stocks.
| Expiration | IV | Expected move | 1 SD range | Straddle |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 18, 20265 days | 36.3% | ±$6.18 (4.2%) | $139.40 to $151.76 | $4.95 |
| Dec 11, 202628 days | 45.6% | ±$18.37 (12.6%) | $127.21 to $163.95 | $14.63 |
| Jan 15, 202763 days | 46.7% | ±$28.24 (19.4%) | $117.34 to $173.82 | $22.45 |
| Feb 19, 202798 days | 46.4% | ±$35.03 (24.1%) | $110.55 to $180.61 | $27.78 |
Each expiration has its own implied volatility, and short-dated IV reacts more to near-term events, so the nearest expiration can differ a lot from the 30-day figure.
Counts and ranges for USO from our preset scans at the last close. Open a preset in the app to see each trade with its strikes, prices, and risk, refreshed intraday. Income strategies show annualized return; the rest show return on risk.
40 trades pass on USO
21 trades pass on USO
Market data as of the prior close, for information and education only. Not investment advice. Options involve substantial risk and are not suitable for every investor. See our Terms of Service.