Bear Put Spreads Below the 200-Day
Bear Put Spread4 trades pass on VST
- Return on risk
- 159.7% to 289.9%
- Probability of profit
- 34.0% to 40.8%
Vistra Corp. · Utilities
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VST last closed at $133.01 with 30-day implied volatility of 45.1%. That is near the bottom of its one-year range (IV rank 21), so options on VST are cheap compared with its own recent history. Measured by IV percentile, IV is higher than 17% of the past year's readings. Options expiring Dec 11 (28 days out) price a one standard deviation move of about $16.36, or 12.3%.
The price is below both its 50-day (-7.1%) and 200-day (-12.4%) moving averages. It is 26.2% below its 52-week high and 17.8% above its 52-week low. The 14-day RSI of 46.1 is between 30 and 70, neither overbought nor oversold. The 14-day average true range is $7.86, about 5.9% of the price, a measure of a typical day's range.
Option volume at the close (18.5K contracts) was 0.5x its average, quieter than usual. A beta of 1.47 means VST has tended to move about 1.5 times as much as the broad market. 3 of our preset screens found trades on VST at the close, led by Bear Put Spreads Below the 200-Day with 4 trades.
Expected move = price x at-the-money IV x the square root of (days to expiration / 365), a one standard deviation range. The straddle is the at-the-money call plus put, the market's own price for a move. Compare expected moves across stocks.
| Expiration | IV | Expected move | 1 SD range | Straddle |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 20, 20267 days | 53.8% | ±$9.91 (7.4%) | $123.10 to $142.92 | $7.90 |
| Dec 11, 202628 days | 44.4% | ±$16.36 (12.3%) | $116.65 to $149.37 | $13.03 |
| Jan 15, 202763 days | 45.9% | ±$25.37 (19.1%) | $107.64 to $158.38 | $20.30 |
| Feb 19, 202798 days | 46.6% | ±$32.08 (24.1%) | $100.93 to $165.09 | $25.58 |
Each expiration has its own implied volatility, and short-dated IV reacts more to near-term events, so the nearest expiration can differ a lot from the 30-day figure.
Counts and ranges for VST from our preset scans at the last close. Open a preset in the app to see each trade with its strikes, prices, and risk, refreshed intraday. Income strategies show annualized return; the rest show return on risk.
4 trades pass on VST
3 trades pass on VST
1 trade passes on VST
Market data as of the prior close, for information and education only. Not investment advice. Options involve substantial risk and are not suitable for every investor. See our Terms of Service.